31 July 2015 - U.S. equity market quiescent

U.S. equity market quiescent


During the second quarter of 2015, our market stress indicator remained consistently in the offensive portfolio state.  All U.S. equity indices traded within a historically narrow range and ended the quarter essentially flat.  In fact, the narrow S&P 500 range in the first six months of 2015 placed the period in the lowest decile of all 6-month periods ranked by trading range going back to 1953.  Such a narrow range is rare, but not predictive of future returns.  In the middle 1990s the S&P 500 broke out of its narrow range to resume the strong bull market trend of that decade, but in 2007 the range breakout occurred to the downside with the global financial crisis.  What is clear is that periods of such low volatility are anomalous and not representative of the normal state of the equity market...

 

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